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The future
Unfortunately, the different future scenarios do not show positive conditions.
Even if the Paris Agreement agreed during the COP21 in 2015 is fulfilled, which
commits to a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in order to
ensure that global atmospheric warming does not exceed 2˚C, if possible, does
not exceed 1,5 ˚C, in the coming decades at least the temperature will increase
inexorably. In fact, by 2019, global temperature had already increased by 1.1
˚C compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). With warming, the reduction
of snow and glaciers and their associated impact on water resources will
continue. The impacts will be more serious in arid and semi-arid areas, where
snow cover and glaciers are scarcer. Although glaciers indeed provide more
water until they reach their “peak water flow,” and then these flows decrease,
in practice, it translates into “bread for today and hunger for tomorrow” under
the current scenario of increased greenhouse gases. Thus, the fate of the glaciers
is, unfortunately, already defined.
With an optimistic outlook, the recent agreement signed by the 198 parties (197
nations plus the European Union) during the COP28 in Dubai is a hopeful step
towards the future since it is explicitly mentioned for the first time that fossil
fuels (and not generically “greenhouse gas emissions” as agreed in previous
COPs) are a main agent responsible for global warming. The agreement
expresses that parties must “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems,
in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical
decade, to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.