When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, it had hoped to overtake the country in a blitz lasting only days or a few weeks. Many Western analysts thought so, too.

As the conflict marked its third month Tuesday, however, Moscow appears to be bogged down in what increasingly looks like a war of attrition, with no end in sight and few successes on the battlefield.

There was no quick victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s powerful forces, no rout that would allow the Kremlin to control most of Ukraine and establish a puppet government.

Instead, Russian troops got bogged down on the outskirts of Kyiv and other big cities amid stiff Ukrainian defenses. Convoys of Russian armor seemed stalled on long stretches of highway. Troops ran out of supplies and gasoline, becoming easy targets.

A little over a month into the invasion, Russia effectively acknowledged the failure of its blitz and pulled troops back from areas near Kyiv, declaring a shift of focus to the eastern industrial region of the Donbas, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.

To be sure, Russia has seized significant chunks of territory around the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed eight years ago. It also has managed to cut Ukraine off completely from the Sea of Azov, finally securing full control over the key port of Mariupol after a siege that prevented some of its troops from fighting elsewhere .

But the offensive in the east seems to have bogged down as well, as Western arms flow into Ukraine to bolster its outgunned army.

Russian artillery and warplanes relentlessly pound Ukrainian positions, trying to break through defenses built up during the separatist conflict. They have made only incremental gains, clearly reflecting both Russia’s insufficient troop numbers and the Ukrainian resistance. Russia recently lost hundreds of personnel and dozens of combat vehicles while trying to cross a river to build a bridgehead.

“The Russians are still well behind where we believe they wanted to be when they started this revitalized effort in the eastern part of the country,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Friday, adding that small towns and villages were changing hands every day in the Donbas.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, Russian forces have methodically targeted Western weapons shipments, ammunition and fuel depots, and critical infrastructure in hopes of weakening Kyiv’s military and economy.

But in trying to gain ground, Russian forces have also relentlessly shelled cities and laid siege to some of them. In the latest example of the war’s toll, 200 bodies were found in a collapsed building in Mariupol, Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday.

The Kremlin appears to still harbor a more ambitious goal of cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea coast all the way to the Romanian border, a move that would also give Moscow a land corridor to Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are stationed.

But Russia seems to know that this objective is not currently achievable with the limited forces it has.

“I think they’re just increasingly realizing that they can’t necessarily do all of it, certainly not at one go,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads Sibylline, a strategic advisory firm.

Moscow’s losses have forced it to rely increasingly on hastily patched-together units in the Donbas that could only make small gains, he said.

“It’s a constant downshifting of gear toward smaller objectives that Russia can actually achieve,” Crump said. “And I think on the biggest scale, they’ve actually downsized their strategy better to match their their ability on the ground.”

Two top officials appeared to acknowledge Tuesday the advance has been slower than expected. Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said it “is not chasing deadlines,” and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the pace was deliberate to allow civilians to flee, even though forces have repeatedly hit civilian targets.

Many in Ukraine and the West thought Putin would pour resources into the Donbas to score a decisive triumph by Victory Day on May 9, when Moscow celebrates its defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Russia has falsely called the war a campaign to “denazify” Ukraine — a country with a democratically elected Jewish president who wants closer ties with the West.

Rather than a massive campaign, however, the Kremlin opted for tactical mini-offensives, aimed at steadily trying to encircle Ukrainian forces.

“The Russian leadership is urging the military command to show at least some gains, and it has nothing else to do but to keep sending more troops into the carnage,” said Mykola Sunhurovskyi, a military expert at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank.

Many in the West expected Putin to declare a broad troop mobilization, with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace saying he might do it on Victory Day. That never happened, with Russia continuing to rely on a limited force that was clearly insufficient.

A massive mobilization would likely foment discontent in Russia, fuel antiwar sentiment and carry political risks. Authorities opted for more limited options, with lawmakers drafting a bill to waive the current age limit of 40 for those willing to sign up for the military.

The lack of resources was underlined last week by an abrupt Russian withdrawal from areas near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city that has been bombarded since the war began. Some of those forces apparently were redeployed to the Donbas, but it wasn’t enough to tip the scales.

“They really had to thin out the troops they had around Kharkiv, simply because they’re trying to hold to too much of a line with too few troops,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

The Donbas fighting has increasingly become artillery duels, and “it might go on for quite a long time without much movement in the lines,” he said.

“So it will be a more of a positional battle at that point, O’Brien added, with success going to whoever “can take the pounding.”

Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to get a steady flow of Western arms, including U.S. howitzers and drones, tanks from Poland and other heavy gear that is immediately sent into combat.

“Ukraine’s plan is simple and obvious — wear down the Russian forces in the nearest months as much as possible, win time for receiving Western weapons and training how to use them, and then launch a counteroffensive in the southeast,” said Sunhurovskyi, the Kyiv-based military expert.

He said Ukraine hopes to receive even more powerful Western weapons, such as U.S. HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, anti-ship missiles and more potent air defense weapons.

Russian hard-liners warn that Moscow can’t win if it doesn’t conduct a large mobilization and concentrate all of its resources in a decisive attack.

Igor Strelkov, a former security officer who led the separatists in 2014, denounced what he described as the Kremlin’s indecision, saying it could lead to defeat.

“For Russia, the strategic deadlock is deepening,” he said.

Ukrainian authorities are increasingly emboldened by the slow pace of the Russian offensive and growing Western support. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed last week that pushing the Russians back to pre-invasion positions would represent a victory, but some aides declared even more ambitious goals.

Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukraine isn’t interested in a cease-fire “until Russia is ready to fully liberate occupied territories,” a bold statement that appears to reflect hopes for reclaiming the Donbas and Crimea.

Russia, meanwhile, apparently aims to bleed Ukraine by methodically striking fuel supplies and infrastructure while grinding out military gains. The Kremlin may also hope the West’s attention will shift elsewhere.

“Their final hope is that we will lose interest completely in the conflict in Ukraine by the summer,” Crump said. “They’re calculating the Western audiences will lose interest in the same way as Afghanistan last year. Russia thinks that time is working in its favor.”

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Danica Kirka in London, Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, contributed.

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Después de 3 meses, Rusia todavía empantanada en la guerra de Ucrania

Cuando Rusia invadió Ucrania el 24 de febrero, esperaba superar al país en un bombardeo que duró solo días o unas pocas semanas. Muchos analistas occidentales también lo pensaban.

Sin embargo, a medida que el conflicto marca su tercer mes el martes, Moscú parece estar empantanado en lo que cada vez más parece una guerra de desgaste, sin un final a la vista y con pocos éxitos en el campo de batalla.

No hubo una victoria rápida para las poderosas fuerzas del presidente ruso Vladimir Putin, ni una derrota que permitiera al Kremlin controlar la mayor parte de Ucrania y establecer un gobierno títere.

En cambio, las tropas rusas se empantanaron en las afueras de Kiev y otras grandes ciudades en medio de rígidas defensas ucranianas. Los convoyes de blindados rusos parecían estancados en largos tramos de carretera. Las tropas se quedaron sin suministros y gasolina, convirtiéndose en blancos fáciles.

Poco más de un mes después de la invasión, Rusia reconoció efectivamente el fracaso de su bombardeo y retiró a las tropas de las áreas cercanas a Kiev, declarando un cambio de enfoque a la región industrial oriental del Donbás, donde los separatistas respaldados por Moscú han estado luchando contra las fuerzas ucranianas desde 2014.

Sin duda, Rusia se ha apoderado de importantes porciones de territorio alrededor de la península de Crimea que Moscú anexó hace ocho años. También ha logrado aislar a Ucrania por completo del Mar de Azov, asegurando finalmente el control total sobre el puerto clave de Mariupol después de un asedio que impidió que algunas de sus tropas lucharan en otros lugares.

Muchos en Occidente esperaban que Putin declarara una amplia movilización de tropas, y el secretario de Defensa británico, Ben Wallace, dijo que podría hacerlo el Día de la Victoria. Eso nunca sucedió, y Rusia continuó confiando en una fuerza limitada que era claramente insuficiente.

Una movilización masiva probablemente fomentaría el descontento en Rusia, alimentaría el sentimiento contra la guerra y conllevaría riesgos políticos. Las autoridades optaron por opciones más limitadas, y los legisladores redactaron un proyecto de ley para eximir el límite de edad actual de 40 años para aquellos que estén dispuestos a inscribirse en el ejército.

La falta de recursos fue subrayada la semana pasada por una abrupta retirada rusa de las áreas cercanas a Járkov, la segunda ciudad más grande de Ucrania que ha sido bombardeada desde que comenzó la guerra. Algunas de esas fuerzas aparentemente fueron redesplegadas en el Donbás, pero no fue suficiente para inclinar la balanza.

“Realmente tuvieron que adelgazar las tropas que tenían alrededor de Kharkiv, simplemente porque están tratando de mantener una línea demasiado grande con muy pocas tropas”, dijo Phillips O’Brien, profesor de estudios estratégicos en la Universidad de St. Andrews en Escocia.

Los combates de Donbas se han convertido cada vez más en duelos de artillería, y “podría continuar durante bastante tiempo sin mucho movimiento en las líneas”, dijo.

Así que será una batalla posicional en ese momento, agregó O’Brien, con éxito para quien “pueda soportar el golpe”.

Ucrania, mientras tanto, continúa recibiendo un flujo constante de armas occidentales, incluidos obuses y drones estadounidenses, tanques de Polonia y otros equipos pesados que se envían inmediatamente al combate.

“El plan de Ucrania es simple y obvio: desgastar a las fuerzas rusas en los meses más cercanos tanto como sea posible, ganar tiempo para recibir armas occidentales y entrenar cómo usarlas, y luego lanzar una contraofensiva en el sureste”, dijo Sunhurovskyi, el experto militar con sede en Kiev.

Dijo que Ucrania espera recibir armas occidentales aún más poderosas, como lanzacohetes múltiples HIMARS de Estados Unidos, misiles antibuque y armas de defensa aérea más potentes.

Los partidarios de la línea dura rusa advierten que Moscú no puede ganar si no lleva a cabo una gran movilización y concentra todos sus recursos en un ataque decisivo.

Igor Strelkov, un ex oficial de seguridad que dirigió a los separatistas en 2014, denunció lo que describió como la indecisión del Kremlin, diciendo que podría conducir a la derrota.

“Para Rusia, el estancamiento estratégico se está profundizando”, dijo.

Las autoridades ucranianas están cada vez más envalentonadas por la lentitud de la ofensiva rusa y el creciente apoyo occidental. El presidente Volodymyr Zelenskyy reafirmó la semana pasada que empujar a los rusos de vuelta a las posiciones anteriores a la invasión representaría una victoria, pero algunos asesores declararon objetivos aún más ambiciosos.

El asesor Mykhailo Podolyak dijo que Ucrania no está interesada en un alto el fuego “hasta que Rusia esté lista para liberar completamente los territorios ocupados”, una declaración audaz que parece reflejar las esperanzas de recuperar el Donbás y Crimea.

Rusia, mientras tanto, aparentemente tiene como objetivo desangrar a Ucrania golpeando metódicamente los suministros de combustible y la infraestructura mientras tritura las ganancias militares. El Kremlin también puede esperar que la atención de Occidente se desplace a otra parte.

“Su esperanza final es que perderemos el interés por completo en el conflicto en Ucrania para el verano”, dijo Crump. “Están calculando que las audiencias occidentales perderán interés de la misma manera que Afganistán el año pasado. Rusia piensa que el tiempo está trabajando a su favor”.

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